sotoyege.web.fc2.com: Hillary Clinton Futures Trades Detailed

One way to tell which way the stock market is heading may be just to watch how the presidential polling goes.

Should Donald Trump shake off his recent slump and pull ahead in the race, the market will fall, according to one analysis of recent trends. Conversely, then, should Hillary Clinton continue to lead, that would push the market higher if the findings hold true. Macroeconomic Advisers set out to study the correlation between stock prices and which candidate was leading in the polls.

It used as its benchmark Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight tracking, which runs election simulations based on polls and economic conditions. The firm then translated those terms into the trend of the equity risk premium, or the extra return on stocks that investors demand over a low-risk investment like bonds.

If Hillary Clinton Is Elected President, Here's What Will Happen to the U.S. Economy - TheStreet

As of Thursday afternoon, the FiveThirtyEight "polls-plus" measure of who would win today gives Clinton a However, the Macroeconomic Advisers measure was taken from the Sept.

The nuts and bolts breakdown for technical analysts is that if Clinton holds her lead to Election Day, the equity risk premium will fall from 3. If Trump's fortunes turn around, the premium would rise to 3. A higher risk premium indicates anticipation of more market volatility.

Investors really want Hillary Clinton to win now - Oct. 17,

The findings aren't terribly surprising or unusual. A New York Times examination of what might happen to the market during election seasonusing different methodology, found a Trump victory would trigger a 10 to 12 percent drop in the market. Since the end of the World War II, when the market fell in the three-month period heading into the election, the incumbent party lost 86 percent of the time, according stock market shoppers drug mart Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist at CFRA Research.

Getting at why is a little trickier.

Trump, after all, is a businessman who has dabbled in the market, on top of representing a Republican Party that is supposed to be friendlier to business interests and Wall Street culture. However, Prakken suspects the market is leery of the changes Trump would bring, as opposed to the stay-the-course posture that's more likely under a Clinton administration. Indeed, Wall Street is betting on Clinton. Asia Europe Stocks Commodities Currencies Bonds Funds ETFs Investing Trading Nation Trader Talk Financial Advisors Personal Finance Etf Street Portfolio Watchlist Stock Screener Fund Screener Tech Hillary clinton stock market Social Media Enterprise Gaming Cybersecurity Tech Guide Make It Binary options indicators charting Leadership Careers Money Specials Shows Video Top Video Latest Video U.

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Election offers clear economic choice: Democratic presidential nominee former Secreatry of State Hillary Clinton greets supporters during a campaign rally at Goodyear Hall and Theatre on October 3, in Akron, Ohio. It's also consistent with historical patterns and isn't peculiar to the Clinton-Trump race. Jeff Cox Finance Editor. To view this site, you need to have JavaScript enabled in your browser, and either the Flash Plugin or an HTML5-Video enabled browser.

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